Our View: Trade war with Canada would be ‘harmful’ to the Northland

A U.S. trade war with Canada would be “harmful” and “devastating,” putting “the livelihoods of millions … at risk.”

That message was part of an alarm sounded this week by the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative , a bi-national, mayors-led coalition, its 270 member cities including Duluth, Superior, Bayfield, and Grand Marais.

The reality is that Canada is the top export market for the U.S. and for all eight Great Lakes states, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Collectively, the eight states annually export $133.7 billion in goods to Canada. The fallout from a trade war stemming from President Donald Trump’s proposed blanket 25% tariff on Canadian goods as soon as Feb. 1, and Canada’s almost-certain tariffs in retaliation, could be a 1.6% decrease in total U.S. gross domestic product, or GDP, and a 2.6% decrease in Canadian GDP, the initiative estimated.

While those percentages may sound small, we’re talking about an economic impact on the U.S. alone of more than $437 billion, the brunt of it felt by Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the other states bordering the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway.

That Great Lakes region supports more than 50 million jobs that could be put in jeopardy by a duel of tariffs, the initiative said in its statement, released Wednesday.

“Our lakes and rivers propel our enterprises and entrepreneurs, and dynamic workforce,” it stated. “Working together, we have forged leading industries, companies, and multibillion-dollar supply chains that span our borders. Our connected manufacturing, agri-food, energy, and transport sectors supply the United States, Canada, and the world. We must not let a trade war destroy this remarkable bilateral relationship we have built over the centuries.

“Make no mistake, we share a commitment to protecting American and Canadian workers, companies, and communities. We also believe that we can work together to strengthen our border, drive shared economic prosperity, and provide stability and security in these uncertain times. A trade war undermines these shared goals.”

The statement was to “add our voices to the growing chorus of American and Canadian leaders who oppose the prospect of (a) harmful trade war,” Mayors Austin Bonta of Portage, Indiana, and Mat Siscoe of St. Catharines, Ontario, stated on behalf of the group.

That chorus can be heard loudest from Minnesota, which annually exports $1.1 billion in services to Canada, led by business services at $387 million, according to the Embassy of Canada in Washington, D.C. Using data from 2023, the embassy further determined that Minnesota exports $7 billion in goods to Canada every year, led by fuel oil at $1 billion, while Minnesota imports $14.4 billion in goods annually from north of the border, led by crude petroleum at $7.8 billion.

All that economic good now possibly in jeopardy — and for what? The Trump administration hasn’t made the strong case it needs to for the tariffs’ necessity or benefits.

“As a founding member of the (initiative), Superior supports the organization’s efforts to protect the ecological and economic health of Lake Superior communities,” Superior Mayor Jim Paine said in an exclusive statement to the News Tribune Opinion page. “The city of Superior is a port city. Our economy is designed around international trade and some of our strongest relationships are with our northern neighbor, Canada.”

Clearly, trade relations between the U.S. and Canada are critically important to economies in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and well beyond. No state — and neither nation — wins from lobbing tariffs on goods and services at the other.