The Minnesota Timberwolves’ 2022-23 season was largely a disaster.
Sure, there were bright spots, but 42 wins and just five playoff games didn’t meet anyone’s expectations after Minnesota won 46 games the season prior and pushed many chips into the middle of the table to acquire Rudy Gobert during the 2022 offseason.
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The 2023-24 campaign, now that was more like it. The Timberwolves won 56 games and reached the Western Conference finals for just the second time in franchise history.
This season is looking like something between the two. Minnesota (25-21) is four games above .500 for the first time all season after besting Atlanta on Monday in Minneapolis.
Still, the Wolves don’t put off the scent of a championship contender. At least not on many nights.
Why the fluctuation?
Well, in Minnesota’s best season of the three, Gobert earned his fourth Defensive Player of the Year trophy and had the impact of the max-level player he’s paid to be. In the other two years? Often not so much.
This year and the 2022-23 season mark Gobert’s two worst seasons — excluding the rookie season in which he hardly played — in the advanced statistics such as box plus-minus and value over replacement player. His win shares per 48 minutes from the two campaigns only eclipse the numbers posted in that rookie season and the 2015-16 season. For reference, it wasn’t until the season after that when Utah started making the playoffs with Gobert as a pillar of its defense.
This season, he’s currently grabbing fewer rebounds and blocking fewer shots per 36 minutes played than he has at any other point in his career. Timberwolves coach Chris Finch said last week that the center’s “activity level is down.”
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“His aggressiveness to challenge shots, pursue rebounds, offensively and defensively, just hasn’t been consistently where it was a year ago,” Finch said. “I don’t know if it’s a lingering effect, maybe from a long summer or a long couple years. But we’ve talked to him about it. He recognizes it.”
Recent performances suggest Gobert may be on the upswing. He blocked three shots in a win over Dallas. He played perhaps his best game of the season in a dominant win over Denver on Saturday, and tallied another double-double against the Hawks.
“But we need it every night,” Finch said.
Gobert noted some games he doesn’t have as much energy. But he has to have the mindset to deliver regardless — the Wolves need him to. Minnesota has hovered around the .500 mark all season, but when Gobert produces, the Wolves are hard to beat.
The Timberwolves are 22-10 when Gobert grabs at least nine rebounds, 22-11 when he scores at least eight points, 16-5 when he attempts at least seven shots, 16-8 when he doles out two-plus assists and 6-2 when he blocks three or more shots.
Those are the numbers required to be a championship-contending team.
“We know what Rudy is deep down and what kind of player he is for our team and how vital he is for our success,” Wolves guard Mike Conley said. “We’re going to do everything in our power to make the game easier for him to get the most out of him on both ends of the floor. He’s said it publicly, and to us, that he’s going to do what he can to be better at different things that he feels he needs to improve on and the team feels he needs to improve on. And we have the utmost confidence that he’ll get back to that, and, in the process, we’ll just keep being positive with him and keep pushing him forward.”
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Recent games suggest the more Gobert can be involved offensively, the more active he is in general. It doesn’t feel like coincidence that his rebounding and defensive numbers are going up as Conley and, even more so, Anthony Edwards are getting the big man the ball.
Sometimes it’s to score, and other times it’s in short-roll situations in the middle of the floor where he can kick to teammates. And Gobert has turned those opportunities into good looks for Minnesota. The more frequently he can do that, the more he’ll figure to find the ball in his hands.
“He been working, man. He tell me every day, every game, ‘Trust me, trust me, trust me.’ I’m starting to trust him a lot more. That’s all it’s about, just gaining trust, putting him in those positions over and over again,” Edwards said. “He’s been making great plays. I have no reason not to throw it to him now because every time he catches it, he turns around. If the corner’s not there, he kicks it to the wing. If he cuts, he’s been bullying, making the lay.
“He already know how I am. If you do the right thing with it the first time, I’m gonna throw it the second time. He know. He know I love him.”
“I realized when I’m decisive and confident,” Gobert said, “(my teammates) have more confidence in me.”
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